管理决策：理论与实践

　　CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION TO MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
　　1.1 Introduction to Managerial Decision Making
　　1.2 Trends Affecting Decision Making Today
　　1.3 Key Characteristics of Management Science for Decision Making
　　1.4 The Use of Models for Making Decisions
　　1.5 The Use of Software in Decision Making
　　1.6 Applications of Management Science in Business
　　References
　　CHAPTER 2 AVOIDING BAD DECISIONS: The Methodology of Decision Making
　　2.1 Introduction
　　2.2 Decision Making Traps
　　2.3 Decision Making Tips
　　2.4 The Rational Methodology for Decision Making
　　2.5 Identification of the Problem
　　2.6 Analysis of the System
　　2.7 Formulation of the Objectives
　　2.8 Initial System Design
　　2.9 Detailed System Design
　　2.10 Solution Implementation and Monitoring
　　References    Managerial Decision MakingTABLE OF CONTENTSPART IIMODELS IN MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING45
　　CHAPTER 3 LINEAR PROGRAMMING
　　3.1 Introduction
　　3.2 Characteristics of LP Problems
　　3.3 A Maximization Problem
　　3.4 A Trial-and-Error Approach in Solving LP Problems
　　3.5 Graphical Solution of a LP Problem
　　3.6 A Minimization Problem
　　3.7 General Formulation and Assumptions of LP Models
　　3.8 Solving LP Problems
　　Problems
　　References
　　CHAPTER 4 USING SOLVER TO SOLVE LINEAR PROGRAMMING PROBLEMS
　　4.1 Introduction
　　4.2 Introducing the Model in Excel
　　4.3 Solving the Problem
　　4.4 Understanding and Analyzing the Solution-SOLVER Reports
　　4.5 Solving Integer Programming Problems with SOLVER
　　4.6 Solving Non-Linear Programming Problems with SOLVER
　　4.7 Conclusions
　　Problems
　　References
　　CHAPTER 5 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN LINEAR PROGRAMMING
　　5.1 Introduction
　　5.2 An Example
　　5.3 Dual Prices in LP
　　5.4 Reduced Costs in LP
　　5.5 Changes in the Objective Function's Coefficients
　　5.6 Changes in the Right Hand Sides (RHS) of the Constraints
　　5.7 Evaluation of a New Activity
　　5.8 Conclusions
　　Problems
　　References
　　CHAPTER 6 INTEGER PROGRAMMING
　　6.1 Introduction
　　6.2 Formulating IP Problems with Binary Variables
　　6.3 An Investment Example
　　6.4 Formulating IP Problems with Fixed Costs and/or Discounts
　　6.5 Solving IP Problems
　　6.6 Heuristic Methods to Solve IP Problems
　　6.7 Conclusions
　　Problems
　　References
　　CHAPTER 7 MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING
　　7.1 Introduction
　　7.2 Empirical Methods
　　7.3 Goal Programming
　　7.4 The Analytical Hierarchy Process
　　7.5 Using Expert Choice to Solve Multicriteria Problems
　　Problems
　　References
　　CHAPTER 8 STATISTICAL METHODS IN DECISION MAKING
　　8.1 Introduction to Forecasting
　　8.2 Key Concepts about Forecasting
　　8.3 The Moving Averages Forecasting Method
　　8.4 Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Method
　　8.5 Other Forecasting Methods
　　8.6 Linear Regression
　　8.7 Multiple Regression
　　8.8 Discriminant Analysis
　　8.9 Using SPSS for Statistical Analysis
　　Problems
　　References
　　CHAPTER 9 DECISION ANALYSIS
　　9.1 Introduction
　　9.2 Key Concepts about Decision Analysis
　　9.3 Criteria for Making Decisions under Uncertainty
　　9.4 The Expected Value of Perfect Information
　　9.5 Introduction to Decision Trees
　　9.6 Calculating the Risk Profile a Strategy
　　9.7 Sensitivity Analysis
　　9.8 Using Precision Tree to Solve Decision Analysis Problems
　　Problems
　　References
　　CHAPTER 10 SIMULATION
　　10.1 Introduction
　　10.2 Key Characteristics of Simulation
　　10.3 Implementation of Simulation under Conditions of Uncertainty
　　10.4 Simulation of Queuing Systems
　　10.5 Simulation of an Inventory System
　　10.6 Analysis of Simulation Results
　　10.7 Using Simulation for Risk Management
　　10.8 Using Simulation for Business Process Reengineering
　　Problems
　　References
　　PART IIIIMPLEMENTING MANAGEMENT SCIENCE IN PRACTICE227
　　CHAPTER 11 GETTING TO KNOW YOUR CUSTOMER
　　11.1 Introduction
　　11.2 Determining Customer Satisfaction
　　11.3 Designing New Products
　　11.4 Sales-Advertising Response Analysis
　　11.5 Forecasting Sales of New Products
　　11.6 Identifying Areas of Improvement
　　11.7 Studying Product Positioning
　　11.8 Identifying Market Segments
　　11.9 Identifying Prospect Customers
　　Problems
　　References
　　CHAPTER 12 MARKETING AND SALES MANAGEMENT
　　12.1 Introduction
　　12.2 A Product Selection Problem
　　12.3 Design of Sales Network
　　12.4 Selection of Communication Media
　　12.5 Selection of Location
　　12.6 Design of New Product Marketing Strategy
　　12.7 Design of Promotion Strategy
　　12.8 Sales Strategy
　　12.9 Evaluation of Customer Value for CRM Implementation
　　Problems
　　References
　　CHAPTER 13 PRODUCTION AND INVENTORY
　　MANAGEMENT
　　13.1 Introduction
　　13.2 Production Planning-Selection of Production Mix
　　13.3 Capacity Planning
　　13.4 Outsourcing Management
　　13.5 Planning Production Personnel
　　13.6 Production Planning under Demand Uncertainty
　　13.7 Production and Sales Planning under Discounting
　　13.8 Selection of Production Technology
　　13.9 Sequencing and Scheduling Production Problems
　　Problems
　　References
　　CHAPTER 14 NETWORKS AND TRANSPORT PROBLEMS
　　14.1 Introduction
　　14.2 The Transportation Problem
　　14.3 Designing the Shortest Path
　　14.4 Managing Network Flow Problems
　　14.5 Designing the Minimum Spanning Tree
　　14.6 Planning Route Schedules with Multiple Vehicles
　　14.7 Scheduling an Airline's Flights
　　14.8 Project Management
　　Problems
　　References
　　CHAPTER 15 LOGISTICS AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
　　15.1 Introduction
　　15.2 Designing the Supply Chain
　　15.3 Evaluating a Company Acquisition
　　15.4 Planning Product Distribution
　　15.5 Planning Distribution of Hazardous Materials
　　15.6 Selection of Transportation Media
　　15.7 Design and Introduction of New Product
　　Problems
　　References
　　CHAPTER 16 MANAGING INVESTMENTS
　　16.1 Introduction
　　16.2 A Simple Investment Selection Problem
　　16.3 Selecting a Multi-Period Investment Portfolio
　　16.4 Investing in Real Estate
　　16.5 Multi-Period Investment Planning
　　16.6 Asset and Liability Management in a Bank
　　16.7 Deciding on Production and Capital Structure for a Family Business
　　16.8 Developing Effective Export Planning
　　16.9 Developing a Customized Portfolio among FTSE-20 Companies
　　Problems
　　References
　　CHAPTER 17 MANAGING UNCERTAINTY IN FINANCE
　　17.1 Introduction
　　17.2 Investment Appraisal
　　17.3 Investment Selection
　　17.4 Business Analysis for a New Product
　　17.5 Project Finance Decision
　　17.6 Stock Portfolio Management
　　17.7 Capacity Planning under Demand Uncertainty
　　17.8 Portfolio Value at Risk (VAR) Calculation
　　Problems
　　References
　　CHAPTER 18 HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
　　18.1 Introduction
　　18.2 Allocating Personnel Workload
　　18.3 Scheduling for Personnel Time
　　18.4 Recruiting Personnel Using Performance Score Cards
　　18.5 Recruiting Personnel Using Multiple Criteria
　　18.6 Implementing a Fair Bonus System
　　18.7 Selecting Training Program
　　18.8 Building up Personnel Motivation
　　Problems
　　References
　　CHAPTER 19 ORGANIZATIONAL REDESIGN
　　19.1 Introduction
　　19.2 Reorganization of Hospital Processes
　　19.3 Evaluation of the Efficiency of Bank Stores
　　19.4 Supply System Reengineering
　　19.5 Toll Station Management
　　19.6 Planning the Port Services
　　19.7 Factory Production Planning
　　19.8 Reengineering the Rank Xerox Supply Chain
　　References
　　CHAPTER 20 USING MANAGEMENT SCIENCE IN THE
　　WORLD
　　20.1 Introduction
　　20.2 Designing Financial Products at Merrill Lynch
　　20.3 Designing a Supply Chain at IBM
　　20.4 Managing Blood in New York City
　　20.5 Routing and Distribution Scheduling at Federal Express
　　20.6 Human Resources Management at Emporiki Bank
　　20.7 Fire Fighting in Canada
　　20.8 Managing a Supply Chain in the Philippines
　　20.9 Recycling Waste Lube Oils in Greece
　　20.10 Yield Management at American Airlines
　　References

　　A constant pressure on companies to reduce costs while improving quality，efficiency，service and innovation，is on the daily agenda. In this complex and continuously evolving environment，a company's ability to react to the challenges becomes of vital importance.
　　In this new business reality，managers must have the ability to make decisions quickly and thoroughly，by taking evidence into account，and evaluating consequences and alternative plans in terms of growth，profitability and acceptable risk. In today's environment，being able to make good and fast decisions in all areas of business，including financial and risk management，marketing strategy and customer understanding，production and logistics，procurement and supply chain management，human resources management and development，IT-based process redesign, is becoming strategically important.